Rasmussen: Romney May Be the End of the Line for the Republican Establishment

Unless the Republican Party re-invents itself from within again, I believe many will gravitate to a “Conservative” Party.  The Democrat Party essentially re-invented itself in the last 50 years from a moderate-progressive party to a full-blown way left progressive party.  In that same time period, the Republicans re-invented themselves into a totally big business party which is not really conservative but holds to big government for big business.

We have a talk radio show host in the FWD area (Fort Worth Dallas—I like that order better than DFW) who is on the moderate side of Conservative.  He has already started a meme of a Texas Conservative Party that is a separate party even while calling for reform within the Republican Party.  He has enough celebrity that he may just be helpful in giving conservatives a real home in Texas.  Many true Conservatives run as Republicans in Texas as to do otherwise is to not get elected.  An illustration of this, though he is a Libertarian and not a Conservative, is Ron Paul who runs under the Republican banner.

I wish I could give the right attribution to this comment.  Between about 1936 and 1980, Republican’s were saying about domestic policy essentially, “Well, we are for all that too, but only 70%.”  Reagan changed that, briefly.  The GOP establishment was never on board with Reagan, and happy to see him and his ideas go. 

By contrast, what is loosely “The Tea Party” is more in line with Calvin Coolidge.  He actually ripped out by the roots many things implemented by Woodrow Wilson, and to good effect.  Of course that only lasted until 1928, when Herbert Hoover began many of the policies expanded by FDR. 

It is hard to see either a fully viable third party, or a transformed GOP, within less than a decade.  By then, it will be in the midst of financial and constitutional wreckage.  That sort of situation seldom ends well.

RE: “It is hard to see either a fully viable third party, or a transformed GOP, within less than a decade.”

I agree with that first part—I think we’ll be looking at two decades at least.  As to the latter, I don’t see the GOP being transformed for the better at any time, much less within a decade.  Maybe three decades?  I dunno—I just don’t see a possibility of reform, since the third party will take away so many of the Party’s conservatives.

I think it is a bit early to be throwing dirt on any particular candidate.  I could care less about party - which i think is where the majority of America is moving.  Independents.

I am interested in the best candidate that I can get to move forward with the best agenda America can get.  Accountability is the key.  You can’t get riled up for one election.  You have to stay tuned in all the time - as aggravating as that may be.

We either agree to pull together and fix this mess we are in or heap ashes on our heads and moan.

Look at Clinton’s presidency.  Regardless of how you felt about him personally, he moved to right when America spoke.  Had Obama done the same thing, he could have cruised to a second term. 

I also realize that many of the doomsayers are predicting it is over.  If you really think this is over, take a gander at the MSM and left leaning press headlines.  CNN is very excited that they may have found Jimmy Hoffa all the while the world is on fire and our leadership ignored the warnings that our embassies would be attacked and then lied about it.  How closely are they following?  Univision also has a special coming out tonight that is rumored to be explosive. 

Following the daily polls is an exercise in futility.  First you have to break down who they sampled.  Then you have to read the questions to see if they were biased or straightforward questions.  Then you have to look at what happened the day before. 

Nope, it ain’t over.  I think there are a lot more people whose viens bleed red, white and blue who don’t see party anymore. 

Well, baby, it ain’t over til the fat lady sings.  I heard she is not in DC right now and is not scheduled to arrive until sometime around the first week of November.

I would add to this discussion that there is the unspoken assumption that the USA will eventually emerge as a stronger conservative nation - it may take a few decades but the conservatives will win out.

But what if that just isn’t so?  History is full of nations that rise and fall, especially as the political insiders betray the original vision of the nation and create a corrupt political culture all the while following unsustainable economic policies.  How do we know that the United States as a whole won’t simply follow the path of California, where an increasing number of people are either addicted to government handouts or the idea that only a government nanny state can save us; all the while hurtling us to bankruptcy?

How do we know that in 30 years we won’t be just a larger version of Greece - a failing, increasingly irrelevant nation, too broke to do anything other than wreak economic havoc on other nations, all the while existing under the world domination of a China or other new superpower?

Sarah, what is your view of Paul Ryan?  Is he a candidate you could support?  Or Marco Rubio?  Regardless of what “party” they would run under.

RE: “We either agree to pull together and fix this mess we are in . . . “

Yes.  I’m sure everyone will want to pull together in a third party, since nobody cares about party anymore!  ; > )

Seriously, that’s where things fall apart. One segment will be “pulling together” with a third party, and the other segment will be “pulling together” in the Republican Party.

It won’t be pretty—but actions have consequences, and when one party doesn’t support its own platform with its presidential nominees and many other key nominees and leaders as well, “party doesn’t matter” for conservatives because they no longer have one.  But party does matter for liberals because they do have a party that represents them. And that makes one party necessarily far stronger than the other weak one.

RE: “I think it is a bit early to be throwing dirt on any particular candidate.”

I agree—as I said above in the post:

“Romney has a good solid chance of winning—he’s not nearly as dreadful a candidate as anyone with sense knew that McCain was.”

I identified as a Republican during my teen years and for most of my adult life; I even worked for a number of candidates over the years, including Ronald Reagan and George Allen. In recent years I’ve begun classifying myself as an independent because I’ve grown so disgusted with what the GOP has become. I still vote in primaries on occasion - Virginia doesn’t register voters by party affiliation - but I haven’t participated in a GOP convention or caucus for over a decade.

The GOP made a serious mistake in nominating Mitt Romney rather than a solid conservative, yet he may still win the election in spite of himself and a so-called “mainstream media” which is clearly in the tank for the incumbent. In the end, however, I’m not sure Mr. Romney will provide enough of a change from the current administration to move the country in the right direction.

See I don’t see this as GOP is doing it wrong and DEMs are doing it right.  I see it as a fed up America willing to work within the system to try to find a way out of the hole.  It is really hard to discuss the drapes when we have allowed the walls that hold them up to be riddled with termites.

I could care less if both parties dissolved in tears and took their marbles home. 

My comment was not meant that we are ready to back a third party - we are ready to hold the ones who come up accountable.  If not - then shame on us.  And take your choice as to whether you learn to speak Chinese (and which dialect will that be) or Farsi.

RE: “I could care less if both parties dissolved in tears and took their marbles home.”

Understood—and I expect most people recognize that’s not what’s going to happen. Only one will divide, and that’s because it doesn’t nominate people for President who adhere to its platform, and the Democrats do.

RE: “My comment was not meant that we are ready to back a third party . . . “

I understand that some conservatives will *definitely* not want to back a third party. They will want to “pull together” within the Republican Party. But many conservatives will want to back a third party.  That will be the way they “hold the ones who come up accountable.”

At this point it’s like the boulder rolling down hill. The only question for me is timing: will it be in 2013, after the consequences of Romney’s being the Republican nominee are demonstrated?  Or will it be in 2016/2020, after the consequences of Romney’s actions within the Presidency are demonstrated?

I disagree with your outlook but then I do agree that if we don’t change things in DC as well as most of the states that it is all downhill from here.  I don’t think it will be a slow slide either and the downfall of one party over the other is insignificant in the scheme of things.

I’m just praying that God is not done with us yet.

We conservatives must work tirelessly to elect conservatives in every level of government.  We must fight the good fight - all the time.

The third party will start by focusing only on the House and Senate. They won’t go for the presidency for awhile - they won’t go for local elections. They will need to show they can win - so in 2014 you will see a real effort to win 2 to 4 seats in the House.

Actually, the Tea Party has shown they can successfully operate within the framework of the Republican Party.  It hasn’t been easy but they have had some amazing success.  Are you aware the platform contains about ten of the Tea Party priority items?  The only two not adopted were Flat Tax and eliminate the department of education. 

Candidates like Rubio and Rand Paul and hopefully Ted Cruz.

I don’t think anyone can claim that the Tea Party has not been effective in removing RINOS and more than a few Dems.

The flame is not yet out but it is flickering dimly.  There is no mistake we must stand guard continuously from here on out.

I attended a Tea Party demonstration in Washington, DC a couple of years ago to find out what they were about. I was favorably impressed by what I saw. One sign in particular caught my attention: “Go Green - Recycle Congress.” Several folks added “Both Parties” to those signs. Even though several GOP politicans spoke, I got the distinct impression many attendees’ opinions of the GOP weren’t a whole lot better than their opinions of the Democrats.

Yes, it is clear you think the best thing for this nation is to re-elect Barack Obama.  If that comes to pass, it will be interesting to see how that plays out.  Will it result in a utopia of perfectly conservative candidates that you dream about, or as somone suggested above, will it lead to generations of repressive regimes.  Particularly if the Islamic Radicals can take over and make this the linchpin of their new global caliphate.  If that happens, not only will I be long gone, but you will too before freedom shines over this land again.  I hope folks factor that into their calculations before Nov 6.

I’ve struck up a friendship with the chairman of my state’s Constitution Party.  We need to talk more, but it may be that I’ll be CP chairman of either my county or my district. 

I’m convinced that going after the Big Prize every four years, all-out, is absolutely the wrong way to go.  We should be getting people on school boards, and on town councils in partisan elections.  We should be handing out toys during parades.  And (this one is my chairman’s brainchild), we should be setting up Young Constitutionalist chapters at colleges, universities, and maybe even high schools.  Why?  Baby Boomers and Gen-Xr’s are having trouble letting go of the SCOTUS Gambit.  But the Millenials .. and their successors .. They just might be the ones who can shake off the chains, to employ a Bidenism. 

But to do that .. to catch that generation .. first we need to think like them, and articulate what we’re trying to do, using those thought processes. 

This is going to be a lot of fun. 

RE: “Particularly if the Islamic Radicals can take over and make this the linchpin of their new global caliphate. If that happens, not only will I be long gone, but you will too before freedom shines over this land again. I hope folks factor that into their calculations before Nov 6. “

I find this line of logic works even better if you say something like, “We need to elect Romney now .. then in two or four years, we can being to reform the party, cast out all the establishment guys.” 

Also, make sure that AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE are reading this or within earshot.  So, it’ll be sure to go up the food chain to the RNC.  Believe me, they’ll have every incentive to clean house. 

Kinda like if Johnnie has been putting off his book report.  Only, Johnnie is 20 years old and needs to leave the nest.  His parents could say to him,

“Hey Johnnie, the only reason you are here is so that you can do your book report.  We’re VERY DISAPPOINTED IN YOU for not doing your book report and want to see some progress on it.  Even a sentence would be okay with us.  And by the way, after you finish, we ah .. really need to talk.  It’s time you moved out.  But first .. I wanna see that book report.  K’ buddy?”

“So yaaaaaaaaaaah.  If you could just .. complete that book report .. that would be .. great.” 

And lo and behold, the book report is done the very next day. 

Or not. 

I am both hopeful and pessimistic about the future. I’m pessimistic because once freedoms are gone, its almost impossible to get them back.  As Sarah points out, the GOP doesn’t stick to its platform.  Example: higher levels of government expansion since 1970 under Republican presidents than democrats. Following this whole health care debacle, what I see over and over is, people support “it” because it saved their neck (the preexisting condition).  So, people sold themselves and the rest of us into serfdom.  Its just so freaking stupid.  Before Obamacare, 50% of health care spending was by government, and the rest goes through insurance which is really a handful of cartels, suckering people into doing it their way because its not taxable.  This isn’t freedom; its fascism.  And the GOP and democrats aren’t really any different.  Most people don’t even understand that the almost 17 Trillion debt doesn’t include medicare and social security.  And these debacles won’t be undone by congress, the judiciary, or the executive.  They’ll come undone when the US defaults on its debt, ceases to be the reserve currency of the world, and just implodes.  I’m pessimistic because that whole batch of tea partiers that went to congress made a covenant with each other to meet weekly, and not get sucked in to the slime.  They met once, then Hasterd descended upon them, and told them they weren’t allowed to meet anymore, and they obeyed.  Scum bag.  Crook.  Even the way the lead article is framed, that the GOP favors big business more than the Democrats—not really.  The book Obamanomics illustrates that this administration is the among the most crooked, most crony friendly, EVER. 

So why am I hopeful?  More and more people are interested in the Constitution, in the rule of law, in the Republic.  More and more people are getting that “liberty” means limited government…and that we are on the road to serfdom.  The true star on college campuses this year was the messenger of freedom, Ron Paul.  Grassroots explosions of money came from the lovers of liberty.  The challenge for believers in this is, will we get the message that using the coercive power of government is necessary to punish crime, but isn’t the way to turn sinners into saints? 

I’ll hold my nose and vote for Romney—better a White Russian than a Red.

Don’t mean to throw cold water on all this, but if the Democrats prevail this fall, why does anyone think that there will ever be a chance again for conservatives or a third party?

Pelosi’s already talking about amending the First Amendment to get rid of the ability to support the candidate of your choice.  They only need to get a couple of others on the Supreme Court and they can begin rewriting the Bill of Rights there as well.

And remember, that a personage no less august than the supposedly conservative Chief Justice of the United States recently wrote an opinion stating that it is perfectly fine for the federal government to use the taxing power to enforce what is otherwise unconstitutional legislation.

RE: “Actually, the Tea Party has shown they can successfully operate within the framework of the Republican Party.  It hasn’t been easy but they have had some amazing success.”

Hi Jackie—I think you and I have a very different definition of “success,” then. I can hardly conceive of any more *unsuccess* than the conservatives’ efforts to “operate within the framework of the Republican Party.” Indeed, the very fact that Romney is the Republican candidate for President is a sterling demonstration of non-success for conservatives.

So that may be the difference between one set of conservatives—who will be moving away from the Republican Party towards a third party, the only question is when—and another set of conservatives who believe that the years from 2008 onward have been successful for conservatives working within the Republican Party.

That will probably explain why what happens happens.

RE: “Yes, it is clear you think the best thing for this nation is to re-elect Barack Obama.  If that comes to pass, it will be interesting to see how that plays out.  Will it result in a utopia of perfectly conservative candidates that you dream about, or as somone suggested above, will it lead to generations of repressive regimes.”

; > )

Of course, of course.  If you could just be a touch more irrational and also try to squeeze your eyes a bit tighter shut while purporting to “read” the post, that would help me smile more.

As I’ve already explained what I think will “play out”—two very very bad options, either way—I think it’s pretty clear to those who can read and comprehend simple words that neither option is a “utopia” or even several levels under a “utopia.” The Republican Party demolished those possibilities with its informed choices, and we now will have lots and lots and lots more pain and suffering, whether Romney loses or wins. Every time Obama lives into his foundational worldview I think “thank you, Republican Party, for nominating John McCain and Mitt Romney—for what you have done to our country.”

RE: ” I’m pessimistic because that whole batch of tea partiers that went to congress made a covenant with each other to meet weekly, and not get sucked in to the slime.  They met once, then Hasterd descended upon them, and told them they weren’t allowed to meet anymore, and they obeyed.”

And not only that, many of them suddenly discerned—post election—that they weren’t quite as interested in the Constitution, private property rights, free enterprise, individual liberty, and limited government as they had once thought.

I’m very happy to vote for actual conservatives in various races.  That’s what I do—vote for conservatives, rather than continue to reward the Republican Party for nominating non-conservatives as key candidates.  But the notion that these actual conservatives are going to be able to actually exercise significant influence over the Huge Majority of non-conservative Republicans that reside in the House and Senate and who are complicit allies  of the liberals in the House and Senate—in a time period under 15 years or so—is truly delusional.  Jim Demint has around 4 other conservative allies to caucus with against the liberal Republicans and the liberal Democrats in the Senate. He may gain 2 to 3 more if he’s *really really* fortunate, after a several year slog of laboring for that.  So we could achieve a 50/50 parity between libs and conservatives in . . . oh . . . 12 to 15 more years?  But oh, wait—during that 12-15 more years, the Republican Party will have nominated another several Bob Doles, John McCains, and Mitt Romneys.

Here’s something positive, though. 

Perhaps we can gain a couple more good seats in the Senate, and House.  That has been—for the past four years—my primary hope and optimism.  I *am* heartened at the better number and quality of candidates on the state and local level—we have significantly better choices than we did ten years ago.  I am heartened over what happened in 2010 in the House and Senate races.  I would count a few more good seats a significant victory, especially considering the horrendous and calculated and unprincipled and corrupt and buffoonish and incompetent choices made by the Republican Party.

And if Romney won, a chunk of the conservative segment would be happy, while many of us would not be and would be very sobered over the coming third party after the choices of his term.

But at least there would be some happiness and frivolity for some conservatives on election day.

I just don’t buy this as a piece of possible political prognostication.

(1). The Democrats want this to happen, make no mistake about it…they are salivating. However, of late the national Democrat candidates have been leaning further and further to the left.

(2). As the DNC becomes more extreme in its socialist and secular (more of a ‘laicity’ than traditional secularism) outlook/platform, the various constituencies that make up the ‘Reagan coalition’ (which is today’s Republican party) are going to form a tighter nucleus for the sake of survival…

They will not split, but will circle the wagons more securely…regardless of what they feel for each other.

RE: ” The Democrats want this to happen, make no mistake about it…they are salivating.”

Yes—I agree that they look forward to the Republican Party’s fracture.  It’s a pity that the leaders of the Republican Party couldn’t have staved this off by making principled and competent and honorable decisions.  But . . . they didn’t.

I’m not certain, though, how the party of the Democrats *desiring* the fracture of the Republican Party will necessarily make it not happen! 

Your #2 may be correct, of course—I doubt it, personally, but we’ll see.  After all, I’ve given myself a rather tight window for my predictions.  ; > )

RE:  ” ‘Reagan coalition’ (which is today’s Republican party)”

Yes, they had two members of said coalition as keynoters at the convention.  One of them is the probable nominee for the 2016 ticket (or is it the 2020 ticket .. no matter).  The other is a Hollywood actor. 

The probable nominee believes that human life begins at 13 weeks.  The actor’s former girlfriend had more than one abortion during their time of cohabitation. 

I’m sure Reagan would heartily endorse such people riding, for better or worse, on his coattails. 

RE:  “They will not split, but will circle the wagons more securely…regardless of what they feel for each other. “

May the road rise to meet you,
May the wind be always at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
The rains fall soft upon your fields.
...Until we meet again. 

I agree with jamesw’s worst-case scenario. If Obama wins this election, the game is over. The economy will never recover and the USA will become a declining former power, kinda like Europe now. If Romney wins, this could still happen, but at least there will be a chance of turning things around.

As for John McCain, if he had been President for any four of the past twelve years, we would not have a national debt of $15 trillion.

A “Republic of New England” offers an alternative scenario which may become more attractive.  You may read about it in:

http://republicofnewengland.blogspot.com/2012/10/constitutional-convention-of-republic.html

Sucession and repudiation of the national debt?  That’s a nice magic trick.  I would expect that the US government as well as the states not invited, wouldn’t want to be left holding the bag.  I don’t think that would end well.