One SF contributor’s Presidential prediction

Hopefully to be followed by posts from the more informed, analytical, Calvinist, foreign, female, legal professional and other kinds of SF contributors.

I’m leaning toward Romney winning on a very close electoral vote.

I started leaning toward that opinion just the other night.  A few of us were waiting for a church meeting to start, and there were some teenagers on hand.  One of them was asked about his efforts to land a job since graduating, and he just shook his head and said, “It’s hard to find something.”

America’s generally high standard of living tends to buffer us and let us wallow in ideology most of the time - but wallet and purse issues are acute right now and don’t favor the Democrats.  President Obama & Co. had the power, including both houses of Congress for a bit, and their massive dabbling in the economy hasn’t made things better.  “It’s hard to find something,” despite gazillions of unbudgeted dollars confiscated, borrowed, redistributed and otherwise thrown to the four winds.

More Americans are going to be in touch with Democratic economics prior to the election, through workplace preparations for 2013.  I just attended the benefits presentation at the hospital where I hold a second job.  In anticipation of the Democratic health plan, employee health coverage premiums are up dramatically, especially for newer employees.  And we found out (did you know this?) that Obamacare caps medical flex spending accounts at $2,500 - President Obama and his party dramatically constrain a prudent (and tax free) way that working people can use our own income.  Families will feel this.

Meanwhile, the stuff that would usually nail down a win for the Democrats isn’t working.  I was stunned when the Romney “47%” quote didn’t shift the polls unalterably to Obama.  “The War on Women” schtick got heckled - by women.  Bonehead quotes from Republican candidates failed to generate the “gotcha” impact that I would expect in most election cycles.  “Binders” blew chunks.  “They’re liars!  Liars! Liars!” pulled up lame.  Public confidence in the Democrat news media is in the toilet - their pundits get cheers from only the most Kool Aid besotted liberals.  And even some of those MSM pundits are starting to criticize President Obama.

In short, the Democrats’ normally effective stuff isn’t working.  It’s not that the GOP is shining great light that cuts through the darkness - it’s that slogans and memes don’t hire people and sign paychecks, and the party in power is the party of slogans and memes.  “Fail,” as the much sought after, non-voting, unemployed YOUNG PEOPLE like to say.

Still, it will be a very close election.  America remains an affluent country and there are plenty of people comfortable enough to think that “gay marriage,” federally subsidized recreational sex and other hobby horse issues are what matter.  And plenty of the other people who are suffering in this economy will draw the conclusion that massive government is what can help them.  Those two cohorts give President Obama a formidable-right-around-50% of the electorate.

But I think enough folks are struggling and dissatisfied to give Romney some key states and a close victory.