Election Prediction: The Only One You Need to Know

“...young people who would vote for Obama if they did, but can’t even remember what day the election is on.”

  and     at the same time.

Thanks for your analysis.  As an avid SF reader, I was hoping one of the credible contributors would make up for the earlier garbage by that Fountain hack.

You need to know my semi-infallible election prediction, too. >>
http://wannabeanglican.blogspot.com/2012/10/useless-semi-infallible-election.html

I do think David has it about right.

if the mainstream media decides to stop sucking their collective thumbs and actually do some reporting on the scandal in Libya, which is going to destroy some careers

Unlike Watergate, real people have died in Libya-gate.  In the trumped up Valerie Plame affair Scooter Libby ended up with a felony conviction.  I would expect real justice in Libya-gate to produce some serious prison time for someone[s].

So, yes some careers are going to get destroyed.  And then, when the MSM is bored with Libya-gate, they can go back and take a peek at Fast and Furious.  Even juicier…....perhaps hundreds have died, including a US Border Patrol agent.

The trend is OH is for Romney.  Big time.  I think it’s entirely within the realm of possibility Romney gets over 300 electoral votes.

I’m what you’d consider a classical liberal.  I think the Acton Institute is a phenomenally awesome resource for people of faith.  The problem I have with conservatism is that it just wants to stop the progress of socialism.  I guess I’m more an abolitionist, abolish income taxes, the Fed, the IRS, Social Security, Medicare, Obamacare . . . you name it.

I do think conservatives can be useful though.  I think the Tea Party was promising.  But I think just opposing stuff won’t do.

A comprehensive plan and action to retake the culture (media, news and academia for starters) needs to be implemented.  Soros and other likeminded wealthy people and foundations have been spending small fortunes to win more and more ground for leftism.  With all that, according to the most recent Gallup poll, Conservatives and Moderates make up 75% of Americans.  Liberals are still only 21%!  This should be good news.  But I look at all the $$$ being thrown at academia and journalism schools by Soros & Co and I don’t see anything remotely like that for right-of-center groups at all.

One other thing, over a year ago I was “excommunicated” from the episcopal cafe for basically expressing an opinion contrary to the Party Line with admittedly a healthy dose of snark.  I’d be really surprised if anything like that happened here.

I wish Obama actually respected his oath to uphold the Constitution and didn’t appoint “scholars” like Elena Kagan with the mystery X-ray vision to find “the privacy of abortion rights” buried in an 18th century document.

I wish Romney’s economic plan weren’t flagrantly mendacious and that cutting taxes by 20% would raise tax revenue.

I wish that Obama didn’t steal the power to kill Americans without due process.

I wish Romney’s “my plan covers people with pre-existing conditions” didn’t mean “emergency rooms only for sick people without insurance.”

But that’s not the way it is.

Obama will win {Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn., Nevada and (New Hampshire and/or Iowa) and (Ohio and/or Virginia and/or Colorado)}.  Obama will win.

I hope Christians will overcome the world.

Here’s my map based on how poorly the 2010 mid-term elections, Scott Walker’s recall bid and Ted Cruz’s primary run were predicted: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Ykw (in case that doesn’t work; Romney 377, Obama 161). 

For decades the response rate on polling was 50%.  For the last 3 or so years it’s been 9%.  9%!!!  Somehow contemporary polling doesn’t count independents and tea party types worth a damn.

#1.  My man, T-Fountain.  Again with the young people.

Yes, some young people are retarded, and yes, our culture has a crazy obsession with youth.  But at least we didn’t deregulate Wall Street, borrow $1,000,000,000 from the Chinese to look for WMD’s in Iraq, or take 50+% debt/GDP from future generations to blow on tax cuts and entitlements at a 30:1 ratio for the elderly against children.

The Plantagenets: the joke is more on boomers like me, who keep contorting ourselves into absurd positions trying to reach THE YOUNG PEOPLE, based on our assumption that they are just like us and simply waiting for us to come up with some fresh new expression of ourselves.

Correction: the above should read $1,000,000,000,000

I suppose that’s why my venerable forefathers in their wisdom invented scientific notation

#9

Sorry, for the friendly fire.  I turn into a very serious young man when I think about the mess I’ll have to pay for.

And thanks for pointing out the joke on the boomers.  It’s actually kind of creepy to function as someone’s historical dialectic from the receiving end.

My prediction is that we will see a solid and larger than expected Romney victory, which will include Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, probably Wisconsin, and quite possibly Minnesota and Pennsylvania.  I have zero confidence in my prediction though.  My reasons are as follows:
1) I suspect that Romney will generally outperform the polls.  As others have said, the polls that show Obama leading or even neck-and-neck assume a higher D turnout than seems warranted.
2) The momentum still seems to be with Romney, though I am guessing that the storm may throw things off somewhat.  But bottom line is that I think it too late now for momentum to go to Obama.  It doesn’t make sense for me for Romney to surge close in places like Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania if he isn’t ahead in places like Ohio, Virginia and Florida.  I agree with those who see the first debate as being critical.  Obama had about 47% of the vote locked up.  Romney had about 43%.  The debate gave Romney another 5%, and the remaining 5% is likely to break Romney’s way, more so because of the debate performance.
3) Take a look at what the campaigns are actually doing - both over the last few weeks and also right now.  The Obama campaign is really trying to appeal to its base, Romney is trying to appeal to the undecideds.  The campaigns are both shifting to what were once thought to be solid D states.  Some Obama surrogates are starting to point fingers in pre-emptive blame gaming.

My lack of confidence is because all of my thoughts remain speculation and I don’t have possession of sufficient hard data to be sure of things.

I predict 49% Obama, 47% Romney - but I think Romney may get an electoral majority.

Hope this prediction proves accurate! I wonder if this was before or after Sandy. I’m afraid the slimeball (that’s Obama) will use the storm tohis advantage. He’s making a show of concern and being right out there and right on the ball providing federal help. Also there’s some talk on some blogs about problems with election day due to the storm. You can bet that if he can somehow use this he will.

There’s a good chance we could have Obama win the electoral college while Romney wins the popular vote.  Think 2000 but the other way around.