The Only U.S. Election Prediction You Can Trust - i.e. MINE
AND THEY’RE ALL WRONG! Here’s what I reckon will happen…
The big problem with making predictions about elections is that the heart so often gets in the way of the head. I know who I want to win next week, but will my wish get in the way of an accurate assessment. It’s not much better turning to the analysts on T.V. - many of them suffer from exactly the same problem.
So for a long time I’ve done my political predictions a different way - by looking at the betting market. There’s nothing like having your money bound up in the decision to generate a far more realistic on what is going happen. The best place, by far, for this kind of analysis is the UK site politicalbetting.com and their most recent post tells me exactly what I need to know:
So here’s the bottom line for me. Failing something massive happening between now and then I think Obama will win, and perhaps not by a close margin. It will be tighter than last time round, but still a decent lead.
So what will happen? I only have general observations but they are these:
- Domestically the economy will lumber along in a slow move towards recovery. But it will be very slow. The markets will have been hoping for a Romney win and will take a small kick at the start. I don’t think we’ll see the U.S. dollar appreciate in any form for the next 18 months.
- Israel/Iran will be a mess. I have few doubts we’ll see an Israeli attack upon Iran within 6 months, but it will happen in the context of a lack of clearly-signaled support from the U.S. Obama will end up being seen as a voice calling for “restraint” from all sides, rather than taking concrete actions to deal with Iran. The end result will be some form of proxy response by Iran through bodies such as Hezbollah (I don’t think they have the capacity to do anything else). Obama will shake his head from a safe distance and imply that Israel are to blame.
- I wonder, 24 months into a second term, if we see little economic recovery in the U.S. we might see serious introspection amongst the Democratic party on a line with the Tea Party/institutionalists split amongst the Republicans. Obama’s more radical approach might be deemed to have failed. Would be interesting then to see who emerges as a front-runner alongside Hilary.
OK, now for you to tell me all how wrong I am….
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