Now It’s Time for Some Predicting PAST the Election
So far, it is four to one among SF bloggers that Mitt Romney will win the election—and despite the London oddsmakers cited by David Ould, I tend to agree with what Tim Fountain, David Fischler, Jackie Bruchi, and Greg Griffith have posted. The current election might be close, but I expect Mitt Romney to be the victor in the Electoral College by at least ten to fifty votes. Even so, depending on how the numbers turn out in New York, Illinois and California (where Obama will win by huge pluralities), Barack Obama could end up winning the overall popular vote, but still lose in the Electoral College. (Look for signs of election fraud in Cook County, Illinois, to take just one example.)
So in that sense, at least, I make the fifth to project a Romney electoral win, and there is nothing new to add, except perhaps this curious factum: Congress first fixed Election Day (as the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November) nationwide in 1845. Since that year, there have been only six previous national elections which fell on November 6 (as it will this year), beginning with the year 1860— when Abraham Lincoln was the successful candidate. (The other five years are 1888, 1900, 1928, 1956 and 1984.) Do you see the pattern there? If you look at the winners in each of those six elections (Lincoln, Harrison, McKinley, Hoover, Eisenhower and Reagan), you will see that they were all Republicans. So we five SFers are also on history’s side (except I know what David Ould’s oddsmakers would say about the streak eventually having to be broken).
Anyway, when I sat down to write my predictions, I simply assumed Romney’s victory, and asked myself: what would happen after the election if that assumption proves correct? (If the assumption proves wrong, there is no trick to predicting what will happen, since we’ve already had four years of it.) And thus we come to my contribution to this series of posts—let me know in the comments what you think, and whether you can see other things that are very likely if Romney wins:
If Romney wins the electoral college vote, expect cries from the liberal media which attempt to drown out the country’s actual selection per the Constitution’s procedures, and challenges filed to individual State results, just as with the 2000 Bush-Gore election. The electoral results, however, will be mostly unassailable, except in the States where the vote is still too close to call even days or weeks after the election, and recounts and protests are going on. If Obama wins the immediate popular vote overall, look for that result to be used by Obama’s backers to cast doubt over the legitimacy of the electoral outcome, and to file protests wherever possible. The hue and cry against the Electoral College in the media will vastly increase, as it always does when it fulfills the founders’ intentions, and keeps the Presidency from being merely a contest determined by the most populous States. Of course, should Romney also win the popular vote, then watch for the number of protests and votes contested by Obama and Co. still to be filed in the States where the numbers are close. The only thing that will prevent a repeat of Florida in 2000 is a decisive popular vote win for either of the two candidates in each and every swing State.
If (as predicted) Mitt Romney carries the vote in the Electoral College (which is the only vote that truly counts), watch for the transition from an Obama White House to a Romney presidency to be full of backbiting, disturbances and unpleasantries. Recall how the Clinton team trashed White House computers in handing the Executive Offices over to Bush, and expect similar petty “revenge” to manifest itself once again.
Also, look for foreign affairs to put Romney and his incoming team immediately to the test: Israel may move against Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and thereby force Washington’s hand even before Romney’s inauguration. Or we might become embroiled in a war in Syria, as a consequence of Obama’s attempt to ensure himself some kind of legacy in foreign affairs before January 20, 2013.
There will also be a bitter and partisan lame-duck session of Congress following the election, at which all sorts of retaliatory measures could be passed by the Senate Democratic majority to aid Obama in the short run, only to be blocked by the House Republican majority. Any increase needed in the so-called “debt ceiling”, or dealing with the expiration of the “Bush tax cuts” and the automatic sequestration of funds for the Department of Defense (among others), will be a strong potential source for a government shutdown, in an attempt to discredit the new administration before it even gets started. The odds of this happening will increase in direct proportion to the degree that the outcome of the election remains in dispute in key swing States. At the end, look for Pelosi to step down, and to make room for Stenny Hoyer to succeed her as the House minority whip, so that Governor Brown of California will be able to fill her seat immediately with another Democrat.
Once President Romney is inaugurated, look for the media to become just as hostile as they were with George Bush in 2000—lots of stories about claimed Republican election fraud, about inexperience and the mistakes which it causes, and further “investigations” into the actual ballots in swing States (we aren’t done with “hanging chads” yet, alas). Eventually, however, the steady hand of the new Romney administration will begin to lead to an upsurge in jobs and the economy (don’t say I said so, but the stock market will have a huge rally after November 6 if Romney is the clear winner—only probably to fall again during the lame duck session and any resulting government shutdown, or additional downgrading of the country’s debt rating). The Democrats’ attempts to block the new President (via their continued small majority in the Senate) will largely backfire (i.e., for the first time in four years, Congress will be forced to pass an actual budget), and could lead to some defections. Of course, if the Democrats lose even their majority in the Senate (which is not out of the realm of possibilities), then the bitter transition will become even smoother for Romney and his Republicans.
The major test of the new administration will take place, as I said, either shortly after the inauguration, or even before, when Israel moves against the Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. Watch for major hostilities to break out in the Middle East after the election, and for Obama to do nothing in response for as long as he can get away with it if the breakout occurs while he is still on watch. After January 20, President Romney will make a radical change in our Mideast and overall foreign policy (John Bolton for our U.N. Ambassador, anyone?). He will gradually pick up the pieces after Obama’s petulant refusal to do anything in light of his loss, and of the facts which will inevitably emerge about the Benghazi fiasco.
In short, we will be in for interesting times. Hang on to your hat!
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